Truth

Play Something We Can Dance To

I met Mindy McCready when she came to St. Louis in 1996 before releasing her first single, 10,000 Angels. She was pretty much just a kid and was really nervous, but we joked around about her record company rep, and the radio business, and before long she had loosened up a little and we were getting along well.

I took the group of us to this Sinatra themed restaurant called The Summit, and we ended up staying out pretty late that night.  She hadn't turned 21 yet, so she couldn't partake of the wine we had for dinner, so I suggested we all go back to my place for a nightcap.

It ended up being just Mindy, her boyfriend (and legendary Nashville producer) David Malloy, and me, and we picked up wine and beer on the way.  I admit that at the time, Malloy was more of a thrill for me than Mindy, he had produced some of Nashville's biggest and best artists. (He was also her producer at the time.)

By midnight we were sitting on my living room floor drinking wine, rummaging through my CD collection, each of us picking off-beat songs we loved (album cuts), playing them, and lamenting how none of those songs got played on the radio.

Time did what it always does, and at about 3:30 I picked the last song of the night, Billy Dean's "Play Something We Can Dance To."  The song was important to me at the time because I had just been through a divorce which I described to them, and the song lyrics really hit home.  As we listened, the song made Mindy cry.  Every time I hear it now I think of her instead of my ex.

We finally wrapped up at around 4 am, and they headed to the airport for an early flight back to Nashville.  That morning at about 9:30 my phone rang, and it was Mindy.  She said she felt bad about waking me up but had a story she couldn't wait to tell me.  Apparently, when they got to the gate at the airport, there was a guy sitting there with a guitar case, and David recognized him as a songwriter from Nashville, Dennis Morgan - who co-wrote "Play Something We Can Dance To" with Billy Dean.  As they waited for the flight, she told him the story of our night, and how his song had been the teary nightcap, and he was very touched.  It's a small world.

It wasn't long before I saw Mindy again, as her debut concert happened in STL a few months later, opening for George Strait.  She was so nervous she threw up for 2 hours before the show, but when the lights came up, she was absolutely perfect.  What a night.

We stayed in touch and saw each other many times along the way.  We talked when she stopped seeing David, and again when Dean Cain proposed to her.  She also called me, heartbroken, when he broke up with her. After that she went off the rails a little, and ended up coming back to town to play on a much smaller stage, giving what I can only describe as a mystifying performance.

I haven't seen her in more than 9 years, but I've heard the rumors and read the headlines along the way.  And now, this news.  As I struggle to write down my thoughts, I could easily talk about how troubled she was, I could rehash her personal choices, and pick over her life with a fine toothed comb, but there's no need.  The truth is, she was one of the sweetest people I've ever met, and I feel a profound sadness tonight for her sons and family.

The photo I've chosen to include is of better days.  Goodspeed, Mindy.  I will miss you.

It's all a matter of perspective.

The more things change

One morning, long before the recession hit, I was following a garbage truck down the street, watching as a large mechanical arm reached out and picked up trash cans, lifted them above the truck and dumped the contents inside.

As I watched, I remembered not long ago when two men would run the routes, one riding on the back of the truck while the other drove the vehicle.  The guy on the back was in charge of 'collection', not a clean job but probably good pay and an on-the-job fitness program.  He was also the socialite, waving to neighbors and exchanging pleasantries.

We used to leave Christmas goodies on top of our can on the last pickup day before the holiday.  Generally it was a big tin of cookies, enough for two.  But I digress.

As I watched the newer truck with its single driver, I wondered what became of the guy on the back.  Obviously his job was cut, a consequence of the confluence of technology and budgetary realities.  One could argue that the development of the mechanical 'garbage arm' permanently eliminated half of the collection jobs.  Fifty percent, gone forever.

I'm no Luddite, I embrace technology and love how it has made my life easier.  The dream of the human race has long been to develop robots to do the dirty work.  The Jetsons had Rosie the Housekeeper.  The Robinsons had 'Robot', whose verbal alerts of impending doom ("Warning, alien approaching!") saved the lives of the family more than once.  He was also a vicious chess player.

Be careful what you wish for.

When the housing market collapsed and the world slumped into the Great Recession, CEOs of companies with large work forces began licking their chops.  Though regrettable, this recession is just what they needed: an excuse to lay off huge swaths of workers.  Millions lost their jobs and found themselves, many for the first time, in the unemployment line.  Their replacements?  Algorithms, robots, and when a live person is needed, temp workers who receive no benefits beyond an hourly wage.  A CEO's wet dream.  Wall Street's Perfect Storm.

And the Middle Class's death knell.

Courtesy of the Associated Press:

"The jobs that are going away aren't coming back," says Andrew McAfee, principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and co-author of "Race Against the Machine." ''I have never seen a period where computers demonstrated as many skills and abilities as they have over the past seven years."

The global economy is being reshaped by machines that generate and analyze vast amounts of data; by devices such as smartphones and tablet computers that let people work just about anywhere, even when they're on the move; by smarter, nimbler robots; and by services that let businesses rent computing power when they need it, instead of installing expensive equipment and hiring IT staffs to run it. Whole employment categories, from secretaries to travel agents, are starting to disappear.

"There's no sector of the economy that's going to get a pass," says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote "The Lights in the Tunnel," a book predicting widespread job losses. "It's everywhere."

The numbers startle even labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

The implications are startling.  The unemployment numbers remain in the 7's because it's the new reality.  There will be no big recovery this time.  A recovery requires new jobs.  Those jobs are now permanently gone.

We're not alone.  Technology has enabled US corporations to eliminate jobs in other countries as well.  Places like China, Taiwan, India and other developing countries are feeling the same pinch.  It's mind blowing.  For the first time in our history, we're facing the reality of the leaps in technology that have quietly, slowly allowed us to replace ourselves.

The Pollyanna in me says, great - we're free to spend more time with family, enjoy the little things, smell the roses.  Good, right?  The problem is, our society is built upon working, collecting a check, and re-spending that income in our economy.  If we can't do that, major changes will need to take place.

Watch this:


So now, we're faced with the challenge of our time.  How do we rise to meet it?  How must the world change if we're to continue our way of life?  What will the new paradigm look like?  Will we revert to farming our own food?  We won't be able to afford food from a grocery store.  Educating our own children?  The tax base will drop precipitously, making our current education system untenable.

It's difficult to imagine all of the implications, but it's clear we're whistling past the graveyard now, finger pointing as to why the unemployment numbers are still high.  Folks, the numbers aren't coming back.

You’ve been replaced. Technology, outsourcing, a growing temp staffing industry, productivity efficiencies, have all replaced the middle class. The working class. Most jobs that existed 20 years ago aren’t needed now. Maybe they never were needed. The entire first decade of this century was spent with CEOs in their Park Avenue clubs crying through their cigars, “how are we going to fire all this dead weight?” 2008 finally gave them the chance. “It was the economy!” they said. The country has been out of a recession since 2009. Four years now. But the jobs have not come back. I asked many of these CEOs: did you just use that as an excuse to fire people, and they would wink and say, “let’s just leave it at that.”

I’m on the board of directors of a temp staffing company with $600 million in revenues. I can see it happening across every sector of the economy. Everyone is getting fired. Everyone is toilet paper now.

Flush.

The good news is, you won't need to bake as many cookies for the trash guys.  Post your thoughts in the comments section.

The Oldest Rock in the World (not even on AARP yet)

What have we learned from the 'oldest rock in the world'? Tons.

We've learned that what we think we know about early Earth is actually a patchwork of best guesses.  Most of them are probably wrong.

This period has a name; it's called the Hadean Eon, from the ancient Greek, Hades — basically, a polite term for "hellish." Hell melted all the rocks on the Earth's surface, and when it's as hot as Hades, you can't have life, either. The Earth had to wait for its first living creature until later — till things cooled and quieted down. That, anyway, is what we used to think.

Fascinating.  What we know about the universe is.. not much.  But we're learning.  More info here.

May I Borrow a Cup of Sugar?

My neighbor stopped by the other day to tell me my irrigation system was leaking into my side yard.  Norm doesn't stop by too often, but when he does, it's always because something within his purview is amiss. Last time, I had lost a few shingles during a storm.

Next-Door-Norm is handy for keeping me informed about my house.  But that's as far as we go.

I've tried.  I once wandered next door when he was weeding his flowerbed.  I asked him how he was.  "Fine."  Not, "how about you?"  So I mentioned the weather.  "Yep."  I stood there for 30 seconds watching him, hands in my pockets, then told him to have a good one.  I wandered back into my own yard.

Norm's daughter hangs outside and plays with my son, but Norm and his wife keep to themselves.  I know nothing about them beyond the tidy nature of their yard.  The yard is always very clean, which is impressive.  Very tidy.

Remember when neighbors used to talk?  When I was a boy, Ailene and Shorty were over twice a week for cards.  If we were out of something, Harold Young next door probably had it.  My grandpa "loaned" Bill Blackman a quart of oil once and I spent more time than I'd like to admit considering what condition it would be in when he returned it.

I wonder if Next-Door-Norm would loan me a quart of oil.  I wonder if he'd let me use his phone sometime. I kind of doubt it.  I bet he just wouldn't answer the door.

Neighbors just aren't the same nowadays.

Apple bites back.

Like other sectors, the smartphone business is pretty incestuous. Not at Arkansas levels, but it's getting to the point where a widget is a widget. A swipe is a swipe. They are borrowing ideas back and forth.

The iPhone's debut in 2007 was quite the big deal, but if you think Apple was the first company to build a smartphone, you're cracked. In fact, there were few innovations with the iPhone. But Apple marketed it brilliantly, and for what it was, the iPhone was pretty incredible.

Once the demand for smartphones was spurred by the iPhone, the race was on.  Small companies began building features, apps and code for them. The US Patent Office got slammed. As companies like Apple, Google, Samsung, Motorola and others began taking note of these innovative features and code, they started buying up the small companies in order to own the patents.

Fast forward to the recent patent trial between Samsung and Apple. What a cluster phuque.

It's clear that the patent system has gotten out of hand. It's the newest profit center for big companies like Apple, Google, RIM, HTC and Samsung. Not that those companies needed the money. (well maybe RIM, but anyway...)

Now a new beast has been born: The Patent Troll.

The favorite tactic of a patent troll is to file lawsuits in such a way that it's cheaper to settle than to fight the lawsuit in court. As a result, company are bled resources that could be directed towards legitimate develop that instead serve as a feast to the leeches.

Not all branches of the software industry follow this model. For example, the internet largely avoids patent litigation. And that is fortunate. If the internet followed the smartphone model, every website button, every font, every animation would be patented and few sites would exists, because only the large and powerful could maintain a sufficient arsenal to survive. 

Instead, the internet opts for a democratic/collectivist solution where everyone works on common standards that are free for all. And despite claims from some industry figures that patents are "essential" to preserving "innovation", the internet has thrived and developed with remarkably few pesky patents.

The corporations I'm picking on aren't all bad per se, but the movement toward buying up patents and then suing in court is troubling. It's not just Apple, but they are involved in the most recent major lawsuit, and are the recipient of a pretty big award from Samsung over the Galaxy S II and other models.

The things that pass for patentable, to me, portrays an out-of-control patent system as much as anything. I am being told that a bounce at the end of a paging effect is some kind of protected thing. And a rectangular shape with rounded corners is exclusive to the iPhone.  That describes most phones in the world.  I think that's a pretty bad precedent, because it is difficult to see an end game beneficial to the consumer. Innovation will suffer because of fear of violating some obscure patent.

Most other sectors of business have managed to peacefully coexist.  Will I soon need to go back to the dealership and have my brake pedal removed because Chevrolet violated Ford's patent?  Nope.

The court system is already overloaded with litigation-happy lawyers and frivolous medical malpractice suits. Will the next big industry in the US be patent insurance? Great, another layer of BS on the top of the shaky foundation that is the US economy.

CNet has a story on how this week's verdict will impact Samsung.

Always use distilled water (or scotch)

Tea is to China as steak is to NYC

What does the price of meat tell us about the economy?  NPR has an interesting article about legendary NYC steakhouse, Delmonico's.

Delmonico's, the New York City steakhouse, has been around forever. 

The New York Public Library's archival menu collection doesn't go back quite that far. But it does have a Delmonico's menu from 1918. The archive also, sort of randomly, has a Delmonico's menu from 1988. Delmonico's current menu is online.New York Public Library 

Click here to view a PDF of Delmonico's menus from 1918, 1988 and 2012.

One item that's on all three menus: filet mignon.  This allows us to ask an interesting (to us) question: How has the price of filet mignon changed over the past century? Here's the answer, adjusted for inflation.

We hardly knew ye

The talking heads are chiding North Korea for having a failed rocket launch last week.  They were supposedly attempting to launch a weather satellite, but we all know it was essentially a missile test.

At any rate, it broke apart 90 seconds after launch and fell into the Yellow Sea.  But the sad irony is, we forgot to look in the mirror before poking fun at NK's misfortune.  We don't currently possess a space vehicle capable of orbital flight at this point.  NASA's budget has been gutted and the Shuttle program mothballed.

We had one last look at a shuttle in flight today, as NASA transported the Discovery to the Smithsonian's original Air & Space Museum.  It did so on the back of its specially modified Boeing 747.  Quite the sight to see as it made a flyover of DC before landing at Dulles.  Farewell, old friend.  Here's to better days...

Why do I believe anyone is interested in my life story? Anyway, here's Chapter One.

The first thing I remember as a rug rat was a train ride from California to Missouri. At age 4, a nap feels like an eternity, a walk to the mailbox seems endless. So this train ride, through the desert, mountains and plains, through night and day, storms and sun, stop and go, stuck squarely in my 4-year-old craw.

By day three, I knew how to tell time, write my name in cursive, compute the square root of 3 and wipe my own butt.

Great-Great Grandma Varty was the one who taught me those things. She sat across the table from me in that creaky passenger car that was, as near as I can remember, the California Zephyr. We had to change trains somewhere in Nebraska or Iowa to finish the trip to Kansas City, but I remember the view out the window. It was spectacular. She kept me hydrated with Cokes and her purse was always stocked with chewing gum. I did not lead the life a dentist would have wanted, especially on that trip.

What I learned from that experience was how big the world was. I had been on an airplane, but they tend to make the world feel small. If you want to really see the world in all its glory, take a train.

I don't remember why I was taking a train to Kansas City with Gramma Varty, but I have a suspicion it was to go stay with my grandparents, who ended up helping me through half or more of my first 20 years.

This is Chapter One of the life of Dave. It gets more interesting - after all, this is my earliest memory. My other early, foggy synapse connection is falling in the yard and cutting my pinky finger wide open on a rose bush, but I'll spare you. There was blood, okay?

I'm drifting off as I type, so I might have to embellish from here. Take a breather, top off your drink and settle in.